Understanding Poker Equity and EV
The term “EV” is used very often in the online poker world. What EV stands for is expected value. This expected value is what helps to determine an edge when making a decision in a hand. If you make a play that is considered +EV it means that you expect to generate a profit in the long run by making that particular move. If you make a move that is -EV you can expect to lose money from it in the long run. The entire concept of EV is to help make solid long term decisions, but sometimes you will make a +EV move and lose money.
Equity is a concept that is used both on and off the poker tables. Equity is one of the more difficult ideas to understand when playing poker. Equity essentially represents the times where a hand could have been played alternatively. For example, if you open shove on the flop and get called, you will make up (at least partially) for the times you lose after getting called with the times where you get the other player to fold. If you get called and win 40% of the time and get called and lose 40% of the time, your equity would be represented by the other 20% of the time where the player simply folds.
When is EV useful
EV is most useful when you are involved in a hand and are contemplating what to do. You should be looking for the most +EV move possible. Even if it means making a big fold, +EV should always be the consideration. Ask if you really think the play will be profitable in the long run. The second you start to think along the lines of, “Well maybe I will get lucky”, is when you get burned. -EV moves are most often made without consideration for what a better choice might have been. A simple example would be getting 3-bet with JJ. If the player is even a bit on the tight side it would be +EV to simply fold. It would be -EV to call or raise. Ideally you would consider the EV of each and every move you make, but it is near impossible to do this in game. For this reason it makes much more sense to analyze hands you played after your session is over. See if some of the big hands were played out in the most +EV manner possible. If not you should consider how they could have been played better. This process of playing and then reviewing will make +EV decisions come naturally while you are playing.
When is equity useful
Equity is most useful when you are looking to find the “intangible” portion of any hand you play. Equity is not an actual number so much as it is a theoretical one. If you have aces and are an 82% favorite against your opponent when you flip the cards, that 82% is indisputable. It is a fact that, on average, you will win 82% of the times that you are in that exact situation. Equity, however, is an estimation that is made. This estimation is made by gathering all pieces of information available to come to a few conclusions, conclusions being possible outcomes. If your option is to call a bet or make a raise you can consider your equity. The percentage of times where your opponent will fold to your raise makes up your “fold equity.” Fold equity is extremely important when playing hands like AK. If you 3-bet pre-flop and get called. you will have a bit of fold equity should you go all in or make a large bet on the flop because of your pre-flop aggression.